Monday, May 15, 2006

Thoughts on the Primary, 20 Hours Before Results

No surprises here.

In his latest column, Dave endorses Ron Saxton as his choice in the Republican primary for Governor. Anyone who's read his column on a regular, and unfortunate, basis knows that Dave has no love lost for the Mannix/Parks camp. He makes that clear here and here.

However, with his recent column, I wouldn't be surprised if the letters written in a sense of outrage to The Oregonian this time around are written from the poison pens of incensed fellow Republicans. Both supporters in the Mannix and Atkinson camps are not going to be too pleased with Reinhard's endorsement of Saxton, and I'm sure they're going to let Dave know. And this is also why I think Saxton won't win the general election.

I find it very unlikely that Saxton's campaign, if he were to win, would be able to reach out to Mannix and Atkinson supporters. Saxton is a Republican who has always drawn support from Republicans in Portland. Portland Republicans are a different breed. The issues that are a priority to them are not the same issues that are priorities for Republicans in rural, sparsely populated sections of Oregon. This is why Saxton has morphed into this rabid, foaming-at-the-mouth right-wing talking-point regurgitator this time around- it's his effort to reach out to the Republican voter's in Oregon's "red" districts. However, just four years ago Saxton was viewed as a liberal Republican lacking the necessary leadership skills to run as the Republican's nominee for Governor. Saxton might be wearing a big, scary mask but I suspect, contrary to what Dave believes, that Oregon's "red" voters will continue to be distrustful of the liberal lawyer from Portland, and would be hesitant to vote for Saxton for Governor.

If Oregon's conservative voters had to choose between a Democrat and a Republican in Name Only, I wouldn't be surprised if a good number of them, if they vote at all, would opt out for former Bend ex-Republican legislator Ben Westlund, who's running as an Independent.

Dave may cite Governor Ted's "woeful" ratings, but Kulongoski still leads the pack on the Democrat side, and a majority of Oregon voters have consistently preferred a Democrat to be governor rather than Republican over the past year.

I guess the only issue that needs to be resolved is if supporters of Jim Hill and Pete Sorenson will back Governor Ted for another term when the general elction approaches. If the primary turns out to fracture the Democrat vote as much as the Republican primary seems to fracture that vote, then I think the governorship really could be up for grabs. So this is my final word and plea to Democrats (from a registered Republican)- as primary results are announced tomorrow night, please let's coalesce around the Democrat primary winner. Hill, Sorenson, Kulongoski- either of them would make a good governor. Let's not forget this key piece of information, regardless of how much time you may have spent working and volunteering for a candidacy that failed to win.

Democrats, let's please not forget to see the forest for the trees.

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