Governor's race decided- Saxton wins! (Oh really?????)
Spin spin spin.
That's what Dave is trying do in his latest column regarding Tuesday's primary election results. In fact, I'm sure if you put your ear to the newspaper you just might hear a faint voice saying, "Be afraid Democrats. Be very afraid."
Why? Because Ron Saxton secured the Republican nomination for governor. To Dave, this means the Democrats should be quaking in their shoes, as Saxton is the man to lead Republicans to their first governorship victory in twenty years. To me, Saxton's primary win just means that the Republicans are going to lose with somebody else this time around, instead of the Loren Parks-funded uberloser Kevin Mannix.
You see, a primary victory, although securing the major party's opposition, doesn't really mean nothing. Especially when you consider that only 38% of registered Oregon voters participated in the primary. Dave crows at the poor showing Governor Ted received in Tuesday's primary, with the incumbent guv only receiving 54% of the votes cast. To Dave, this means that "a full 46 percent of the governor's own party" voted against him on Election Day.
Talk about fuzzy math!
According to Oregon's Secretary of State website, 1,260,497 votes were cast for governor in the 2002 general election. Of those votes, 618,004 were cast by Democrats. Now, if the 38% turn-out on Tuesday equaled the same percentage of turn-out for both parties, and that number is applied to the 600,000+ Democrats who voted in November 2002, that means only 234,841 Democrats voted in Tuesday's primary. Of that vote, 108,027 voted against the incumbent governor. You know, when you look at the actual numbers, Kulongoski's "poor" showing on Tuesday looks pretty dismissive. As well it should.
The fact remains that incumbents maintain an advantage in nearly every election, if for no other reason than name-recognition alone. Primary elections are a horse-race for high political knowledge voters- those who care and are knowledgable about the issues enough to be willing to volunteer on campaigns for a candidate they believe in. Voters with low political knowledge tend to not participate in primaries, if they even know its occuring, thus explaining low percentage turn-outs for primaries around the country. (Oregon's 38% is higher than the 10% that turned out in Texas's primary, or the 13% that turned out in North Carolina's, as The Oregonian points out in another editorial.) The primary is the only chance for an upstart challenger- a Jim Hill or a Pete Sorenson- to unseat an incumbent, but they face an uphill climb to do so. Now that he's successfully weathered the challenge of the primary, it's time for the Democrats to coalesce around the Governor.
Dave makes the claim that Saxton doesn't need to revert to the center to win the election in November as he's all ready there. Let's not forget Saxton's poor showing in the 2002 Republican primary, finishing third behind Mannix and Jack Roberts. What explains the surge to victory this time around? By capturing the Republican base, taking strong stands on limiting abortion, restricting immigration, and seeking the endorsement of Lars Larson. As he captured the Republican base to secure the nomination, Saxton needs to test the waters of centrist Oregon politics.
But to Dave, that's no problem. Saxton all ready represents the center, as he supports Oregonian's stances on property rights (Measure 37) and opposition to gay marriage (Measure 36). But guess what? So does Kulongoski.
Kulongoski has said that Oregon's legislature should "work out" any state constitutional issues that might be present in Measure 37 to respect the will of the voters. Although he stands with Oregon's voters' decision to ban homosexuals from getting married, he has pushed for a civil unions law, so that an entire group of Oregonians in committed, loving relationships aren't on the outside looking in, which speaks to Oregonians' belief in fairness. Besides every economic indicator improving under Kulongoski's watch, he also reformed the public employee retirement plan. This upset many public employees, without a doubt, but it's hard for any fiscal conservative to find fault in that regard. And the former Marine has been very vocal about his opposition to the war in Iraq, both to Dubya personally as well as to Oregonians. Neither Dave nor Ron can question the patriotism of a Governor attending every funeral for soldiers whose death not even the President will acknowledge.
I've said before, Teddy K. has been a good governor, not a great one. But incumbents are only voted out if they are invovled in scandals resulting in low approval ratings, such as Ohio's Governor Bob Taft, or commit high levels of incompetence and bungling decision-making as recently trounced Multnomah County Commission Chair Dianne Linn. Dave and Ron will find this out the hard way come November.
That's what Dave is trying do in his latest column regarding Tuesday's primary election results. In fact, I'm sure if you put your ear to the newspaper you just might hear a faint voice saying, "Be afraid Democrats. Be very afraid."
Why? Because Ron Saxton secured the Republican nomination for governor. To Dave, this means the Democrats should be quaking in their shoes, as Saxton is the man to lead Republicans to their first governorship victory in twenty years. To me, Saxton's primary win just means that the Republicans are going to lose with somebody else this time around, instead of the Loren Parks-funded uberloser Kevin Mannix.
You see, a primary victory, although securing the major party's opposition, doesn't really mean nothing. Especially when you consider that only 38% of registered Oregon voters participated in the primary. Dave crows at the poor showing Governor Ted received in Tuesday's primary, with the incumbent guv only receiving 54% of the votes cast. To Dave, this means that "a full 46 percent of the governor's own party" voted against him on Election Day.
Talk about fuzzy math!
According to Oregon's Secretary of State website, 1,260,497 votes were cast for governor in the 2002 general election. Of those votes, 618,004 were cast by Democrats. Now, if the 38% turn-out on Tuesday equaled the same percentage of turn-out for both parties, and that number is applied to the 600,000+ Democrats who voted in November 2002, that means only 234,841 Democrats voted in Tuesday's primary. Of that vote, 108,027 voted against the incumbent governor. You know, when you look at the actual numbers, Kulongoski's "poor" showing on Tuesday looks pretty dismissive. As well it should.
The fact remains that incumbents maintain an advantage in nearly every election, if for no other reason than name-recognition alone. Primary elections are a horse-race for high political knowledge voters- those who care and are knowledgable about the issues enough to be willing to volunteer on campaigns for a candidate they believe in. Voters with low political knowledge tend to not participate in primaries, if they even know its occuring, thus explaining low percentage turn-outs for primaries around the country. (Oregon's 38% is higher than the 10% that turned out in Texas's primary, or the 13% that turned out in North Carolina's, as The Oregonian points out in another editorial.) The primary is the only chance for an upstart challenger- a Jim Hill or a Pete Sorenson- to unseat an incumbent, but they face an uphill climb to do so. Now that he's successfully weathered the challenge of the primary, it's time for the Democrats to coalesce around the Governor.
Dave makes the claim that Saxton doesn't need to revert to the center to win the election in November as he's all ready there. Let's not forget Saxton's poor showing in the 2002 Republican primary, finishing third behind Mannix and Jack Roberts. What explains the surge to victory this time around? By capturing the Republican base, taking strong stands on limiting abortion, restricting immigration, and seeking the endorsement of Lars Larson. As he captured the Republican base to secure the nomination, Saxton needs to test the waters of centrist Oregon politics.
But to Dave, that's no problem. Saxton all ready represents the center, as he supports Oregonian's stances on property rights (Measure 37) and opposition to gay marriage (Measure 36). But guess what? So does Kulongoski.
Kulongoski has said that Oregon's legislature should "work out" any state constitutional issues that might be present in Measure 37 to respect the will of the voters. Although he stands with Oregon's voters' decision to ban homosexuals from getting married, he has pushed for a civil unions law, so that an entire group of Oregonians in committed, loving relationships aren't on the outside looking in, which speaks to Oregonians' belief in fairness. Besides every economic indicator improving under Kulongoski's watch, he also reformed the public employee retirement plan. This upset many public employees, without a doubt, but it's hard for any fiscal conservative to find fault in that regard. And the former Marine has been very vocal about his opposition to the war in Iraq, both to Dubya personally as well as to Oregonians. Neither Dave nor Ron can question the patriotism of a Governor attending every funeral for soldiers whose death not even the President will acknowledge.
I've said before, Teddy K. has been a good governor, not a great one. But incumbents are only voted out if they are invovled in scandals resulting in low approval ratings, such as Ohio's Governor Bob Taft, or commit high levels of incompetence and bungling decision-making as recently trounced Multnomah County Commission Chair Dianne Linn. Dave and Ron will find this out the hard way come November.
posted by true_slicky at 6:43 PM
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